My NFL Picks: Week 4

Season Record: 6-4

This will be the make or break week, to see if last week was a fluke or if I might be onto something here. My guess is I don’t know anything but we shall see. There are some decent matchups here, and obviously everyone will want to see Brady’s return to New England. As always all my lines and odds come from the Barstool Sports Book.

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys | Line: Panthers +4.5

Everything on paper tells me I should be taking the Cowboys in this one, but my gut is saying the Panthers. I know Christian McCaffrey is out, and that’s a big hole in the Carolina offense, but the Dallas defense hasn’t been stellar, especially against a capable offense. I see Carolina shocking people here, with a stingy defense that has given up an average of 10 points per game so far.

Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings | First Half Over: 26.5

I could see either team winning this game, but I think this first half line is low. Minnesota is ranked third for First Half Points averaging 17.0 points overall, with 21 points at Home (granted one game). Cleveland is ranked eighth averaging 15.3 points overall, but first on Away First Half Points with 22. Both teams have proven to be first half scorers, so a no-brainer here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams | Over 54.5

Arizona and Tampa Bay are the only two teams to crack the 100-total-points line so far this season. The Rams have a solid defense, but Arizona’s is no slouch either. These are the last two undefeated teams in the NFC West, so this will be for the division lead. The Rams have been the darling so far, but I think Arizona puts that to an end this week. However, going with the over because I think it’s a slam dunk with these two offenses.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers | First Half Line: Seattle -1.5

This bitter rivalry is sure to be a good game to watch regardless of how it turns out. There has been some turnover, but these two teams still don’t like each other. Seattle are averaging the most First Half Points (20.7) in the league, and then tend to collapse in the second half. I think the 26.5 First Half Over/Under is a bit too good, but I can definitely see Seattle going up big at halftime.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos | Line: Denver -1

The Ravens needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal to beat the lowly Lions last week. They also sport a -3 Point Differential. They aren’t bad but they’re inconsistent. Denver on the other hand have allowed the fewest points in the NFL so far (26). Their offense isn’t setting the world on fire, but they have been playing well. I can see them winning in a rather low scoring one.

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