Season Record: 2-3
Hey I am not going to brag, but I never I figured I would start with one win, let alone two so I am at least pleasantly surprised. Not sure how much I learned from last week, except maybe full game over/under’s aren’t my foray. There’s some great matchups this week, so let’s take a gander. As always, I use the Barstool Sports Book for the lines, O/U, etc.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (First Half Line: Atlanta +1.5)
This game has the potential to be a real stinker. Neither of these teams are exciting in the least. Both have large Scoring Differentials (-80 for Atlanta and -15 for the Giants). While Atlanta might be the worst team in the league, the Giants aren’t far behind. Their defense seems clueless and their offense unthreatening. Much like last week’s first half line I think Atlanta will be up at half, but might ultimately lose. Although, as bad as the Giants have been this could be Atlanta’s first (and only) win of the year.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (Line: Chargers +6.5)
I don’t think the Chargers are as good as everyone is saying they are, but they aren’t bad either. I think a lot of “experts” saw the year Herbert had and automatically assumed he would be exponentially better. The Chargers are a fine team, but not quite a Super Bowl contender like many are claiming.
The Chiefs, coming off a loss at Baltimore, have a rough first three games, that’s for sure. They won a close one at home, and lost an even closer one on the road. Their defense has given up 65 total points so far, while the Chargers have given up 68 points. I could see both teams putting up points but Chargers making it look close, late, so taking them with +6.5. An alternate pick would be the Over at 54.5 points as well.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (Line: Patriots -2.5)
This is game could very well turn into a defensive struggle. You have a good Saints defense going up against a rookie QB, and a good Patriots defense going up against a Jameis Winston. Patriots have a “bend don’t break” policy against opposing offenses, giving up yards but mainly Field Goals. They allowed only a measly 23 points after two weeks.
My prediction is the Patriots force Winston into a few turnovers, and grind the offense into Alvin Kamara having a good, not great, day, winning a close one.
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (Line: Vikings +1.5)
Taking Minnesota in any capacity feels weird. They looked awful in Week 1 and then lost by one point to Arizona on the road in Week 2. They seem very inconsistent this season, but this is their first home game, and they seem to have found a winning formula. This is as much being pro-Vikings as it is being sour on Seattle.
If Russell Wilson hadn’t asked for a trade (allegedly) Brian Schottenheimer would still be the Offensive Coordinator of the Seahawks. Much like Stewie Griffin, Pete Carroll doesn’t like change, and that doesn’t play well in the modern NFL. They beat a bad Colts team Week 1 and then did barely anything in the second half against Tennessee at home last week. I see a lackluster showing in the Twin Cities this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (Over: 52)
I almost took the Eagles at +4 and still might. While Dallas has scored a lot so far (49) they have allowed a lot (48), but against two good teams in the Bucs and Chargers. The Eagles on the other hand aren’t lighting up scoreboards, but their defense has been stingy.
What took me away from the Eagles +4 pick is the Dallas offense is their biggest challenge yet. They held the Niners to 17 points total at home, and the Cowboys struggled with the Chargers. I could see both teams putting up 28+ points each in this one (cue the 17-14 final), so am taking the over.