Two of the three Thanksgiving Day games were pretty damn good. While the Vikings at Lions didn’t break any scoring records it was close, and Washington at Dallas was a shootout of sorts. This week is no easier when it comes to picks, but I will give it the ol college try.
Reminder: I pick games with high odds and you should never use my advice.
Chargers over Texans (Line: Chargers -1.5)
The Chargers are so hard to predict this season…well I guess the last few. You never know which one will show up. While Houston has been great at home, I feel like their Home record gets its first blemish. These teams are evenly matched, and the Chargers defense makes a couple big (aka easy) plays against Osweiler.
Rams over Saints (Line: Saints -7)
Goff was not exactly the second coming of Jim Everett last week. However, he is going up against an awful defense, indoors. While the Saints are a better team I think this might be a case of underestimating a rookie QB and Goff not having to worry about the elements. Also, while its only two games, the Rams still play like a dome team (1-1, +1 Point Differential, 3 TDs/game). If they don’t win they’ll most likely cover.
Raiders over Panthers (Line: -3)
The Raiders barely beat the Texans last week (in Mexico City), but I think at this point its no longer a coincidence. They have the golden horseshoe up their ass, and while the Raiders aren’t great at home, I think they win this rather easily against an inconsistent Panthers defense.
Broncos over Chiefs (Line: Chiefs +3)
The Broncos are great at home (4-1, +34 Point Differential), but I don’t want to discount the Chiefs. While they aren’t exceptional on the Road (3-2, -1 Point Differential) they keep it close and could pull this one out. However, coming off a close loss at Home to the Bucs (I called it) I think the bad times continue.
Eagles over Packers (Line: Eagles -4)
A part of me feels like this is a setup for failure, but the Eagles are the best team in the NFL at home (4-0, +70 Point Differential). The Texans are 5-0 at Home, however, the Eagles Point Differential is more than double of the Texans. The Eagles could be at -14 and still cover. Now, watch me look like an idiot, but I don’t think I will.
*I haven’t been able to dedicate as much time as I’d like to this as I have been travelling a lot lately (Germany this weekend, Ireland the next). I will try to keep up as best I can.