My NFL Picks: Week 10

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(Fear not Vikings fan, I believe in your boys. Skol!)

*Just a quick disclaimer here. I am not a big gambler in general, I enjoy a bit of blackjack every now and then. Once I got over to London though, I realized gambling, mainly on sports, is a way of life. They have sports books on most corners, TV networks have their own sites, and you can even place bets at stadiums while there are games going on. So I jumped in, and only put £5 to £10 each game. So don’t think there picks are coming from a full-time sports gambler. Let’s go!

I won’t be picking every game, every week, just ones I am interested in, or think have good odds which might make me turn my massive £5 wager into a whopping £12 return. Here we go:

Steelers over Cowboys (Line: Cowboys +2.5)

I like the Steelers in this, despite the Cowboys looking like the best team in the NFL at 7-1 and just steamrolling teams. The Steelers are 4-4 and coming off a fairly poor showing, however, they are at home where they are a different team. They perform much better at home (3-1 +44 Point Differential), which includes the Patriots but-kicking when Landry Jones was at QB. Not discounting Dallas here, but I think the Steelers, at home, coming off a bad loss on the road, and these odds, are too good to pass up.

Jaguars over Texans (Line: Texans -1.5)

This is by no means saying the Jaguars are even decent, but the Texans are a completely different team on the road (0-3 -63 Point Differential and average 7.3 points a game). That is horrendous. Now they aren’t exactly going into Lambeau or Century Link, but those are some awful numbers, and what have they done on the road to make you think they can win anywhere?

Eagles over Falcons (Line: Even)

The Falcons are a streaky team and are on the winning side of that now. Their offense looks unstoppable, while the Eagles are having a rough go of it right now dropping the last two. However, the Eagles are much like the Texans when it comes to home and road splits. They have yet to lose at Lincoln Financial Field,  allowing 7.6 points per game in three home games. That’s insane. Two road losses, coming home, people writing them off so there is something to lose? I will take that everyday.

Vikings over Redskins (Line: Redskins -3)

I think this will be a close one, but the Vikings will win by more than three. Both are 2-2 at their respective locations (Home, Road), and the statistics are fairly close. What it comes down to for me is the Vikings defense vs the Redskins offense. I see that being where this game is won or lost and I see the Vikings dominating that. Although I’m sure Kirk Cousins will make me look stupid as Hell.

Buccaneers over Bears (Line: Even)

How do the Bucs have three wins (3-5)?! That’s insane. The Bears are worse at 2-6, but the split stats for this matchup are damn near even, with the slightest advantage to Chicago. I know the Bucs are dealing with a lot of injuries and poor play, but I think their impact players will rise about the Bears’ in this monkey poop fight of a game.

Saints over Broncos (Line: Saints -2)

The Saints have given up a ton of points this year, over 30 per game at home this year (2-2). However, the Broncos offense has looked atrocious at times and I think their lack of quality play out of the QB position will negate any advantage they have. Their quick possessions will exhaust the defense. The Saints offense is well balanced, and will pounce on that advantage and win this one, possibly by the end of the third quarter.

 

3 thoughts on “My NFL Picks: Week 10

    1. No problem, I used to live in St Paul, so I have a soft spot for them. Also, I think they’re still a good team, just not playing well. They have the talent, just need to put it together again. Great site man!

      Liked by 1 person

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